Magnificent autumn flying day!
The season is already well advanced, so breaking any records this weekend is unlikely. However, flights of 100 to 150 km should certainly be achievable!
Saturday :
Fiability 9/10
A slight northerly flow is expected across the entire region. This is generally the type of situation that produces the best flying conditions.
Instability looks fairly strong and consistent throughout the atmospheric profile over the Jura. It may be slightly weaker in the Alps and the Pre-Alps.
The classic Fiesch - Goms - Lötschental 100 km route should be achievable. A detour into the Saas Valley to enlarge the triangle is possible, but the northerly wind will make the return into the Rhône Valley much more challenging. Be careful not to get trapped by the Grimsel "snake" near the eastern turnpoint.
Personally, I would choose to launch from Montoz in the Jura around 11:00 and fly a triangle of approximately 120 km between La Vue des Alpes and Oensingen. Placing a turnpoint slightly farther north to increase the triangle distance would also be a realistic option.
It will be of course possible to fly in the prealps, but not the best option for a long XC flight.
Unfortunately I have a family event tomorw :-).
Sunday
Fiability 6/10
The choice will be much more difficult on Sunday.
The day is expected to be clearly weaker than Saturday.
Instability should once again be stronger over the Jura, but the arrival of high cloud during the afternoon could significantly reduce thermal activity.
This cloud cover is expected to arrive later over the Alps. However, a moderate to strong westerly wind is forecast to develop there during mid-afternoon. This wind should be much less of an issue over the Jura.
The strengthening wind will likely produce turbulent thermals and significant lee-side areas in wallis and PreAlps, and the exact timing of its onset remains difficult to predict.
From a safety perspective, I would therefore still lean toward a Jura XC flight. The Saturday evening forecasts will need to be checked carefully to determine the best launch choice: Weissenstein, Montoz, or possibly a west-facing site later in the day once the wind has established itself.
If the wind forecasts weaken, additional opportunities could open up in the Alps.
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